Analisis Skenario Permintaan dan Penyediaan Energi Listrik pada Sistem Interkoneksi Jawa-Madura-Bali 2050

Rahmat Adiprasetya Al Hasibi, Sasongko Pramono Hadi, Avrin Nur Widiastuti

Abstract


Abstract—Scenario analysis of electricity supply to meet the demand of electricity is done by the support of LEAP software. Developed LEAP model used the base year of 2010 and the end year of 2050. In the model, scenario consisted of demand and supply side scenarios. In the demand side, designed scenario consisted of the reference and the conservation scenario. The reference scenario used to describe the demand of electricity without any introduction of conservation strategy. While in the conservation scenario, the strategy of energy conservation was integrated in the model. In the supply side, designed scenario consisted of the reference, the optimized, and the reduction of CO2 emission scenario. The reduction of CO2 emission scenario consisted of the implementation of nuclear power plant and renewable energy power plant. The result of the simulation showed that by the implementation of energy conservation strategy the demand of electricity in JAMALI system can be reduced by 20% compare to the reference scenario. The implementation of nuclear power plant can be used to reduce the CO2 emission with the growth of 3.26% per year. In the other hand, the implementation of renewable energy will reduce the CO2 emission with the growth of 3.14% per year.

Intisari—Analisis skenario penyediaan energi listrik untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi listrik dilakukan dengan menggunakan perangkat lunak LEAP. Model LEAP dikembangkan dengan menggunakan tahun dasar 2010 dan tahun akhir proyeksi 2050. Skenario di dalam model LEAP disusun dari sisi permintaan dan penyediaan energi listrik. Dari sisi permintaan, skenario yang disusun terdiri dari skenario referensi dan skenario konservasi. Skenario referensi bertujuan untuk mengimplementasikan strategi konservasi energi di dalam perencanaan ketenagalistrikan. Dari sisi penyediaan, skenario yang disusun terdiri dari skenario referensi, skenario optimasi, dan skenario penurunan emisi CO2. Skenario penurunan emisi CO2 terdiri dari skenario implementasi PLTN dan skenario energi baru dan terbarukan. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan skenario konservasi energi listrik dapat menurunkan permintaan energi listrik hingga 20% dibandingkan dengan skenario referensi. Implementasi PLTN dapat menurunkan emisi CO2 di sektor pembangkitan energi listrik dengan pertumbuhan rata-rata 3,26% per tahun. Implementasi energi baru dan terbarukan sebagai skenario alternatif penurunan emisi CO2 juga dapat menurunkan pertumbuhan emisi CO2 dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan 3,14% per tahun.

Kata Kunci— analisis skenario, konservasi energi, optimasi, perangkat lunak LEAP, PLTN, energi baru dan terbarukan.


Full Text:

PDF

References


IEA, "Key World Energy Statistics," Paris, 2010.

DJLPE, Statistik Ketenagalistrikan dan Energi Tahun 2008, Jakarta: DJLPE 22-2009, 2009.

IEA, "Energy Policy Review of Indonesia," International Energy Agency, Paris, 2008.

D. V. Hippel and P. Hayes, "Two Scenarios of Nuclear Power and Nuclear Waste Production in Northeast Asia," Yonsei University Department of Political Science, Yonsei, 1997.

B. Limmeechokchai and P. Chaosuangaroen, "Energy Saving Potential in the Thai Commercial and Industrial Sectors: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning in the Small Buildings and Industries," in The 2nd Joint International Conference on “Sustainable Energy and Environment (SEE 2006)", Bangkok, 2006.

M. H. Sahir and A. H. Qureshi, "Specific Concerns of Pakistan in the Context of Energy Security Issues and Geopolitics of the Region," Energy Policy, pp. 134-140, 2007.

M. E. Wijaya and B. Limmeechokchai, "Optimization of Indonesian Geothermal Energy Resources for Future Clean Electricity Supply: A Case of Java-Madura-Bali System," IIRE International Journal of Renewable Energy, 2009.

W. Wangjiraniran and B. Euaarporn, "A Study in Fuel Options for Power Generation in Thailand," Engineering Journal, pp. 35-44, 2010.

E. S. Karapidakis et al., "Generation Expansion Planning of Crete Power System for High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources," Materials Science Forum, pp. 407-414, 2011.

R. KUHI-THALFELDT and J. VALTIN, "The Potential and Optimal Operation of Distributed Power Generation in Estonia," Oil Shale, p. 240–252, 2011.

B. Limmeechokchai, S. Tanatvanit and S. Chungpaibulpatana, "Energy Conservation and CO2 Emission Mitigation in Thailand," in 2nd Regional Conference on Energy Technology Towards a Clean Environment, Phuket, 2003.

W. Cai et al., "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China’s five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, p. 1181–1194, 2008.

Y. Tanotoa and M. E. Wijaya, "Economic and Environmental Emissions Analysis in Indonesian Electricity Expansion Planning: Low-rank Coal and Geothermal Energy Utilization Scenarios," in IEEE First Conference on Clean Energy and Technology (CET), Bangkok, 2010.

A. Phdungsilp and T. Wuttipornpun, "Energy and Carbon Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making towards Sustainable Industrial Sector Development in Thailand," Low Carbon Economy, pp. 165-172, 2011.

C. Heaps, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. [Software version 2011.0.0.43], Somerville: Stockholm Environment Institute [www.energycommunity.org], 2012.

BPS, "Data Strategis BPS tahun 2010," Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta, 2011.

PLN, "Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik," P.T. PLN (Persero), Jakarta, 2011.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/jnteti.v2i1.31

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2016 Jurnal Nasional Teknik Elektro dan Teknologi Informasi (JNTETI)

JNTETI (Jurnal Nasional Teknik Elektro dan Teknologi Informasi)

Departemen Teknik Elektro dan Teknologi Informasi, Fakultas Teknik Universitas Gadjah Mada
Jl. Grafika No 2. Kampus UGM Yogyakarta 55281
+62 274 552305
jnteti@ugm.ac.id